I picked up my Bill James 2011 Handbook the other day and went through and looked at the White Sox regulars. We can all agree that the White Sox sucked last year, but looking at the projections that James made for the 2011 team, too many key players were much, much worse than advertised (All in, indeed). Instead of just looking at this in the privacy of my own home and silently lamenting the woeful display that was the 2011 White Sox, I will instead use the internet as it was intended and share my angst, observations and snark with all of you.
First on the chopping block is Adam Dunn. Sweet Jesus did he suck last year! But don’t just take my word for it and every sportswriter in Chicago, look at these numbers:
Averages Actual: .159 BA .292 OBP .277 SLG .569 OPS
Batting Actual: 66 H 16 2B 0 3B 11 HR
There are, of course, more numbers to look at but since I’m comparing Bill James’ projections, I’ll stick with these. Basically Bill did not do very well with his projection on Adam Dunn, Oy!
Averages Projected: .247 BA .373 OBP .511 SLG .884 OPS
Batting Projected: 140 H 31 2B 1 3B 39 HR
Luckily for Dunn, he did not register enough at bats for this to become a historically bad season. Unluckily for Dunn, so many people will never forget, including me. Just looking at the difference between the projections and the actual all I can do is wonder how could it go so wrong? Well, the change in leagues can account for some of it, but clearly not all. There is no way the American League is that much of a superior league than the National. His age? I suppose that might account for some of it too, but the drop off seems pretty drastic from 31 to 32. If Dunn were even 35 to 36 it would make more sense, but even then the drop off was so incredible, so extraordinary that it ultimately defies description. I hate to say, James 0 for 1.
Going by the level of disappointment produced by each player, Alex Rios is next on the list. Some even argue he was a bigger disappointment than Dunn, but I just like to think they both really sucked and leave it at that. Anyway here are all the numbers actual and projected:
Averages Actual: .227 BA / .265 OBP / .348 SLG / .613 OPS
Averages Projected: .280 BA /. .333OBP / .453 SLG / .787 OPS
Batting Actual: 122 H / 22 2B / 2 3B / 13 HR
Batting Projected: 159 H / 36 2B / 4 3B / 18 HR
Just looking at those lines depresses me. What makes it worse is that he produced more than Dunn, if only by a smidge. If I get more bored at work, I should look and see how many times they were on base together. I would wager when combining Rios’ ineptitude with Dunn’s inability to move that was a rare occurrence. Basically if Dunn got on base when hitting in front of Rios it was rare if he made it past second base and it was rare for Rios to get on in front of Dunn. If he did, Dunn either struck out or walked. On the subject of Rios and James’ predictions, however, I have to say while not as bad as the Dunn predictions, Bill still missed, 0 for 2.
Now the curious case of Gordon Beckham. Bill James gave Gordo a lot of love at the beginning of 2011 as did many Sox fans and media types. I can’t say that I was that optimistic. I realize that James uses past performance to make his projections, while factoring in age, injury history and the like. A big factor, I think, in Gordo getting a decent projection is that he has a pretty small sample size, two MLB seasons one of which was only 103 games. I’ll be really interested in where Beckham is at in next year’s Handbook:
Averages Projected: .273 BA / .343 OBP / .436 SLG / .779 OPS
Averages Actual: .230 BA / .296 OBP / .337 SLG / .633 OPS
Batting Projected: 151 H / 41 2B / 2 3B / 15 HR
Batting Actual: 115 H / 23 2B / 0 / 10 HR
All things considered, this isn’t as bad as it could have been, say if the season would have ended at the All-Star Break. Beckham did not have nearly the bounce in the second half as he did in 2010. James was pretty accurate on home runs, but was pretty far off on everything else. I was considering giving Bill a tie on this one, but looking at the disparity between his average numbers I think it’s more 0 for 3.
I felt that if Brent Morel batted about .250 and played a decent third base that the White Sox could survive with his growing pains. Of course I did not foresee the Armageddon that was Adam Dunn and the ineptitude of Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham. Given those circumstances Morel’s lack of…well, everything at the plate did not help the White Sox much at all. Bill James makes the point in his introduction to the projection section that minor league statistics are useful in making projections for rookie players. Unfortunately, Morel’s cup of coffee in 2010 was a better indicator of how he would perform in 2011, small sample size be damned.
Averages Projected: .291 BA / .327 OBP / .448 SLG / .775 OPS
Averages Actual: .245 BA / .287 OBP / .366 SLG / .653 OPS
2010 Cup of Joe: .231 BA / .271 OBP / .415 SLG / .687 OPS
Batting Projected: 150 H / 36 2B / 3 3B/ 13 HR
Batting Actual: 101 H / 18 2B / 1 3B / 10 HR
2010 Cup of Joe: 15 H / 3 2B / 0 3B / 3 HR
All of which is to say, James was too optimistic for young Brent, but I definitely think he can improve and if he puts up 2012 numbers closer to his 2011 projections that will be quite a boon for the White Sox. Even so, can’t say this was a good prediction so 0 for 4.
I think we have covered all of the black holes in the line-up, but the second level of suckiness needs to be looked at. I don’t think these next three guys were horrible last year, but they weren’t particularly good either. They might have been good pieces to an already strong line-up, but not all three. Where to go from here as far as level of disappointment? I have to go with Carlos Quentin. I’m not including defense in this little soiree, but he is a butcher in right field. He is paid for offense though, not his defense. Unfortunately, he wasn’t great this year, but he definitely wasn’t the problem either:
Averages Projected: .261 BA / .354 OBP / .499 SLG / .853 OPS
Averages Actual: .254 BA / .340 OBP / .499 SLG / .838 OPS
Batting Projected: 132 H / 32 2B / 2 3B / 28 HR
Batting Actual: 107 H / 31 2B / 0 3B / 24 HR
All things considered Bill did a good job on Quentin, especially when one considers that James projected 137 games for the Q and he only played in 118. Which leads to his position on the disappointment chart; Quentin has only played in 130 or more games (131 whoo-hoo) twice in his White Sox career. When he goes out, it leaves the Sox with the likes of Brent Lillibridge and Alejandro De Aza. Sorry but I just can’t get that excited about a 27 year old rookie, unlike most Sox fans. Also, I love Lilly, but he isn’t exactly what is needed from Quentin’s replacement. Either way, I have to say Bill James did pretty good, 1-4.
Speaking of bad defense, AJ Pierzynski is pretty much what everyone thought he was going to be, including Bill James, so it’s hard to be too disappointed with his performance. Like the Quentin injury situation, however, the lack of foresight on the part of Sox management about AJ and an eventual replacement is disheartening. When he was re-signed before 2011 it was as if the Sox were saying, “Well everybody we got in the minors sucks, so this is as good as it gets, suckers.” So even with AJ performing to expectations, it sucks because it feels like organization wasn’t trying, again relying on Dunn and others to produce and hide the mediocre catcher:
Average Projections: .276 BA / .315 OBP / .403 SLG / .718 OPS
Average Actual: .287 BA / .323 OBP / .405 SLG / .728 OPS
Batting Projected: 137 H / 27 2B / 0 3B / 12 HR
Batting Actual: 133 H / 29 2B / 1 3B / 8 HR
Like I said, James was pretty much dead on with AJ, but when the above numbers are one of the best individual performances on your team, it is going to be a long year, 2-4.
Much like AJ, but in left field is Juan Pierre, the guy, if you believe Joe Cowley of the Sun-Times, was kept on the White Sox because he was one of Ozzie’s favorite players. When Kenny broached the topic of getting rid of Juan or at least sitting him in the early part of 2011, Ozzie reportedly said, “then you have to explain it to the rest of the team.” I’m sure Juan works hard and is a great guy, kind to animals and children, but if this is the guy you’re drawing a line in the sand for, then maybe you deserve to get fired:
Averages Projected: .283 BA / .337 OBP / .338 SLG / .675 OPS
Averages Actual: .279 BA / .329 OBP / .357 SLG / .657 OPS
Batting Projected: 180 H / 22 2B / 5 3B / 1 HR
Batting Actual: 178 H / 17 2B / 4 3B / 4 HR
Looking at these numbers, I’m convinced Ozzie is crazy when he says he would like a team of 25 Juan Pierre’s. Bill James 3-4.
Rounding out the starting line-up are the two most solid players on the White Sox roster, especially over the last few years. First up is the Cuban Missile (easily the worst nickname to come around in recent years) Alexei Ramirez. He performed pretty much right to expectations, right on James’ projections and if you thought he was going to do better than that, well technically you were wrong, but not by much. Even so Alexei had a good year and I hope he’s at shortstop for the foreseeable future:
Averages Projected: .280 BA / .325 OBP / .426 SLG / .750 OPS
Averages Actual: .269 BA / .328 OBP / .399 SLG / .727 OPS
Batting Projected: 162 H / 26 2B / 2 3B / 18 HR
Batting Actual: 165 H / 31 2B / 2 3B / 15 HR
Like I said, James was pretty close and the difference could be attributed to James projected 155 games played and he actually played 158. Even so James, as I’m sure is no surprise, pulls even, 4-4.
The final person to look at in this annus horribilis is the first baseman, Paul Konerko. Where would the White Sox be without Paul Konerko? A scary proposition to be sure. What is even scarier to me is that this ride has to come to an end sometime and with each passing year, I look to the next season with a bit of dread. Even so Paulie was just solid:
Averages Projected: .273 BA / .361 OBP / .496 SLG / .857 OPS
Averages Actual: .300 BA / 388 OBP / .517 SLG / .906 OPS
Batting Projected: 152 H / 28 2B / 0 3B / 32 HR
Batting Actual: 163 H / 25 2B / 0 3B / 31 HR
James was a little low on Konerko, but not terribly so. I’m guessing that the 2012 projection will reflect a certain bearishness as well. Hard to argue with that thinking; Konerko will be 36 at the beginning of the season and he’s coming off of two very solid years. An adjustment of sorts is due I’m afraid. What would make it worse is if the underperforming players continue downward instead of bouncing back. If that’s the case, 2012 will be even harder to bear than 2011. James hit Konerko pretty much on the nose, so 5-4 James. What is telling from these numbers, however, is that where the White Sox missed projections, they REALLY missed (Dunn, Beckham, Rios and Morel). The players who met or exceeded expectations just weren’t enough to carry the White Sox. I suppose in an effort to approach completeness I could look at players like Brent Lillibridge and Alejandro De Aza. However, if the season came down to relying on those two (and it did) then it would just be further evidence of what was stated at the very beginning of this post, the 2011 Chicago White Sox sucked. After Christmas, the pitchers; I don’t want to depress people anymore before the holidays.












A Late Review for Sizzle! A Global Warming Comedy
November 15, 2011I managed to catch the play Sizzle! on its closing weekend so my thoughts come a little too late to be of any help to those that were thinking of going to see the show. I did promise the playwright my brutal opinion after the show so my usual dozen or so readers will be joined by at least one more, who unlike myself, actually has written something that a fair amount of people have actually seen. I don’t say that lightly. Just thinking of the numbers for a second, more people saw Sizzle! Friday night then will probably ever read my dissertation. I can’t say read this blog because I’ve had a few blind squirrel days around here, thanks Deadspin and YEMblog , but in all fairness, writing a play, getting it produced, and dealing with actual critics from the likes of Time Out Chicago, The Chicago Tribune and other publications is real big boy stuff, not this little ditty.
Dear God, I almost quoted Shakespeare, but I will refrain. About the play; all things considered it was…ok. There were a few things that were mildly annoying and a few that were very annoying. And a few things that were pretty good, so let’s start there. I know New Suit is a bit of a nomadic tribe when it comes to space, but the west theatre at the Raven was quite wonderful. A number of storefront theaters have distinct seating issues, namely sightlines and sound but the small space at Raven was fantastic; stadium seating and a decent sound system that made the various audio pieces work. What’s more, I wasn’t quite centered (no matter what the venue, I kind of like being off center) and yet everything came through loud and clear. A good counter example to this is the theater I went to on Saturday evening, the Oriental. A huge space, but we were far left of center and we had a difficult time hearing the dialogue from certain locations of the stage. Anyway the space was superb and hopefully the New Suit can put on more shows there or comparable locales.
On to the mildly annoying. I can’t remember which review was pretty harsh about the lead actor, but I was pretty much in agreement with whoever wrote it. I’m lucky to have the insight of the playwright and a mutual friend to get the answer to some of these issues, but it doesn’t mitigate the fact that the character as either written, directed or performed (or a combination of all three) made me dislike him and not in a comedic sort of way, say like Ricky Gervais was in the Office or Jeffery Tambor in Arrested Development. It was more like dreading his appearance in general, like Chris Kattan in Corky Romano. The lead actor basically went from Jerry Lewis to Gene Wilder to Matthew Perry in the matter of minutes during a variety of scenes. The overall nervous and manic persona he tried to display ventured too far into caricature and stereotype of the neurotic persona that can too easily be overplayed.
Speaking of stereotypes, the decision to have the Hollywood producer act like a Pricilla Queen of the Desert was a bit much to take. I understand that the writers were trying to respect the filmmaker of the source material (more on this in a moment) but the character was positively gauche. However the truly annoying character because it embraced so many stereotypes was the second lead, the African American cameraman. The characterization of an African-American with baggy clothes, sideways hat, and eubonic affectation of speech was every Republican’s view of African-Americans bar Tiger Woods, Herman Cain and Michael Jordan. What was further infuriating was how the relationship was established of the white professor being the smart one and the African-American being uneducated. In the second act when the white characters were explaining to the African-American the nuances of environmental science and policy was almost offensive. They might as well have been speaking to a child.
Now, I have a bit of insider information about this character and the Hollywood producer. I’ve been told that the writers wanted to respect the original filmmaker and do an accurate retelling of the documentary. They went so far as to show the filmmaker working drafts of the script. I understand and respect the writer’s sensitivity to this issue and I find it admirable that they went to such lengths to insure they were representing his vision and memory of events. To be an historian for a second; at some point the author must offer their interpretation of an event, not just an accurate retelling, but an avenue to help the audience or reader understand the issue at hand. This is especially needed in a public performance. Even if the two characters in real life were directly out of the caricature handbook, being confronted with them on stage makes for a bad experience and presentation. Characters need depth to be believable and sometimes accuracy isn’t the best way to achieve that. A person’s perspective and memory are often the worst avenues to get at any truth, especially for an audience. I feel like the mission of the New Suit was compromised a little by giving the original source such a strong voice. Perhaps they could only get the rights to make the play by giving him editorial input and if that was the case, in the future they should demur instead of go forward with something that is lacking.
I should note that the second act, the talking down to the African-American notwithstanding, really embraced the educational and provocative mission of New Suit. It was quite good how the debate became framed and the importance that one person has in any issue. The idea that debate is healthy and as the New Suit has done with a number of productions that there are more opinions and sides to an argument than the predominant narrative that is usually latched upon by the mainstream media. So it is vital that New Suit keeps doing what it is doing. They just need to exert more control on the message in the future and remember that sometime the medium affects the message.
Post-Script
Looking over this review, I realize I’m being pretty brutal. Now, the playwright told me to not hold back and I didn’t. Like I said at the beginning, however, to put one’s work out there, produce it, market it, and suffer the critiques of two-bit academics and theatre critics alike, is truly admirable. I think it only far, then, to get off my butt and write some of the things that have been on my mind for quite some time. The playwright of Sizzle! gets the first licks on whatever that turns out to be.
Tags: blogs, New Suit Theatre Company, Reviews, Sizzle!, writing
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